Voter turnout, particularly black voters, could determine election outcome

Associated Press

Tue, May 13 2008

— MONTGOMERY (AP) — While incumbent Republican Gov. Bob Riley has a comfortable lead in polls over Democratic Lt. Gov. Lucy Baxley, political observers say the outcome of other races could depend on how many voters turn out, particularly black voters.
D’Linell Finley, political scientist at Auburn University Montgomery, said a heavy turnout by black voters would “definitely benefit” Democrats, particularly in races for lieutenant governor, attorney general and chief justice, which polls have shown could be close.
Finley said he expects turnout in general may be better than the norm because of interest generated in recent weeks by the lower ballot races. He said part of this is because of the negative ads being run in some statewide and legislative races.
“I have never taken the view that dirty ads turn people off. It makes people pay attention,” Finley said. He said the ads calling candidates too liberal or accusing them of being unpatriotic or not paying taxes make some people ask “Is that true?” He said the ads make others think that the candidate who ran the ad is “sleazy.”
“But nasty ads get people talking,” Finley said.
State Sen. Hank Sanders, founder of the mostly black New South Coalition, said in close races “black turnout will be important.”
To help increase that turnout, Sanders has been running a radio ad in west Alabama counties that talks about “the power of one vote” and elections where one vote has made a difference.
Sanders said he is concerned that he has not sensed a great deal of excitement for the election “in the black or white communities.”
A factor that could encourage blacks to go to the polls is three black candidates running as Democrats on the statewide ballot — Supreme Court justice candidates John England of Tuscaloosa and Gwendolyn Thomas Kennedy of Montgomery, and Aubrey Ford of Tuskegee, running for a seat on the Court of Criminal Appeals. But Sanders said he’s concerned there has not been enough done to inform voters about those candidates.
“I think there’s still a considerable number of people that don’t know black candidates are on the ballot,” Sanders said.
Joe Reed, chairman of the mostly black Alabama Democratic Conference, said he’s hoping issues like raising the minimum wage and improving health care for the elderly and children will encourage “working folks black and white” to come to the polls. Baxley has made raising the minimum wage a key issue in her race for governor.
Reed said he has been working to get people to go to the polls Tuesday.
“We are telling them to ’bring their kin and bring their friends,”’ Reed said.
In some areas, like Montgomery, prominent black legislators and local officials do not have opposition, which could hurt turnout. But Alabama Democratic Party Chairman Joe Turnham said in other areas well-known black legislators, like Sen. Vivian Davis Figures, D-Mobile, Sanders, and Rep. Oliver Robinson, D-Birmingham, do have opposition.
He said he hopes the fact that there are blacks and women on the Democratic Party ticket from top to bottom will help turnout.
“I think it helps anytime you have a ticket that looks like Alabama and its diversity it helps,” Turnham said.
Republican chairman Twinkle Andress Cavanaugh said she doesn’t believe that a large black turnout would automatically be good news for Democrats. She predicted some of those voters would cast their ballots for Republicans. “I think traditionally that’s true,” Cavanaugh said. “But we have spent a lot of time working in all communities and many people will be voting for Republicans regardless of race or gender.”